Increased likelihood of heat-induced large wildfires in the Mediterranean Basin

Abstract

Wildfire activity is expected to increase across the Mediterranean Basin because of climate change. However, the effects of future climate changes on the combinations of atmospheric conditions that promote large wildfires remain largely unknown. Using a fire-weather based classification of wildfires, we show that future climate scenarios point to an increase in the frequency and severity of two heat-induced fire-weather types that have been responsible for a majority of record-breaking wildfire events. Heat-induced fire-weather types are characterized by compound dry warm conditions and occur in the summer during heatwaves, either under moderate (sudden heatwave type) or intense (hot drought type) drought. Heat-induced fire weather is projected to increase in frequency by 14% by the end of the century (2071-2100) under the RCP4.5 scenario, and by 30% under the RCP8.5. These findings suggest that the frequency and extent of large wildfires will increase throughout the Mediterranean Basin, with far-reaching impacts.