Potential climate change effects on the distribution of urban and sylvatic dengue and yellow fever vectors

Abstract

Climate change may increase the risk of dengue and yellow fever transmission by urban and sylvatic mosquito vectors. Previous research primarily focused on Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus. However, these diseases involve a complex transmission cycle in which sylvatic vectors are also involved. Our aim was to analyse which mosquito species could contribute to the increased risk of transmission of these diseases due to climate change, and to identify where the risk increase could most likely occur. Using a biogeographical approach, we mapped areas where mosquito favourability could increase, decrease or remain stable in the near (2041-2060) and distant (2061-2080) future. Models predict dengue vectors expanding in West and Central Africa and in South-East Asia, reaching Borneo. Yellow fever vectors could spread in West and Central Africa and in the Amazon. In Europe, the models suggest a re-establishment of Ae. aegypti, while Ae. albopictus will continue to find new favourable areas. The results underline the need to focus more on vectors Ae. vittatus, Ae. luteocephalus and Ae. africanus in West and Central sub-Saharan Africa, especially Cameroon, Central Africa Republic, and northern Democratic Republic of Congo; and suggest the need for a protocol to prevent dengue and yellow fever that include surveillance of neglected sylvatic vectors.