Impacts of a millennium drought on butterfly faunal dynamics

Abstract

Climate change is challenging plants and animals not only with increasing temperatures, but also with shortened intervals between extreme weather events. Relatively little is known about diverse assemblages of organisms responding to extreme weather, and even less is known about landscape and life history properties that might mitigate effects of extreme weather. We find that northern California butterflies were impacted by a millennium-scale drought differentially at low and high elevations. At low elevations, phenological shifts facilitated persistence and even recovery during drought, while at higher elevations a shortened flight season was associated with decreases in species richness. Phenological and faunal dynamics are predicted by temperature and precipitation, thus advancing the possibility of understanding and forecasting biological responses to extreme weather.