Predicting Valley Fever Outbreaks: Novel Mechanistic Models Incorporating Climate and Ecological Interactions
Trevor Reckell, Beckett Sterner, David M. Engelthaler, Petar Jevtić
This paper develops mechanistic ODE models to predict Valley fever outbreaks by integrating climate and ecological factors, showing improved forecasting over statistical models when including wildlife reservoirs.
bioRxiv · Apr 23, 2026 · PreprintEcology