Agricultural land use and lake morphology explain substantial variation in water quality across Canada

Abstract

Despite decades of research and mitigation efforts, declines in freshwater quality resulting from anthropogenic nutrient input remain a persistent issue worldwide. Canada has the greatest number of freshwater lakes in the world, yet we have a limited understanding of the magnitude and scale at which most lakes have been affected by human activities, namely Land Use/Land Cover (LULC) alterations. In response, the NSERC Canadian Lake Pulse Network has compiled the first nationwide systematic database of lake quality metrics by surveying 664 lakes across 12 ecozones over three years. To assess the influence of catchment development on water quality and its spatial variation, we built models quantifying the association between watershed LULC and water quality. We found that agricultural and urban land use explained the greatest proportion of variation in water quality among LULC categories (R2 = 0.20-0.29). Overall, our study highlights that drivers of water quality are similar across regions; however, baseline conditions vary, so freshwater ecosystem management strategies must consider their geographic context to better predict where water quality thresholds will be surpassed.