Coupled social-land dynamics and the future of sustainable consumption

Abstract

Dietary patterns have long been a driver of global land use. Increasingly, they also respond to it, in part because of social forces that support adoption of sustainable diets. Here we develop a coupled social-land use dynamics model parameterised for 164 countries. We project global land use under 20 scenarios for future population, income, and agricultural yield. When future yields are low and/or population size is high, coupled social-land feedbacks can reduce the peak global land use by up to 2 billion hectares, if socio-economic barriers to adopting a sustainable diet are sufficiently low. In contrast, when population growth is low or yield is high, reductions in income elasticity can increase peak land use by 100 million hectares. The model also exhibits a regime of synergistic effects whereby simultaneous changes to multiple social and economic parameters are required to change land use projections. This research demonstrates the value of including coupled social-land feedbacks in land use projections.