Tautomerization constrains the accuracy of codon-anticodon decoding

G{circ}U(T) mismatch has the highest contribution to the error rate of base pair recognition in replication, as well as in codon-anticodon decoding in translation. Recently, this effect was unambiguously linked to keto-enol tautomerization, which enables the Watson-Crick (WC) geometry of the base pair. Structural studies of the ribosome revealing G{circ}U in the WC geometry in the closed state of the A-site challenge the canonical induced-fit model of decoding and currently lack a physicochemical explanation. Using computational and theoretical methods, we address effects of the ribosomal A-site on the wobble{leftrightarrow}WC tautomerization reaction in G{circ}U (wb-WC reaction), and the consequent implications for the decoding mechanism in translation. The free energy change of the wb-WC reaction in the middle codon-anticodon position was calculated with quantum-mechanical/molecular-mechanical umbrella sampling simulations. The wb-WC reaction was endoergic in the open A-site, but exoergic in the closed state. This effect can be explained in part by the decreased polarity of the closed A-site. We developed a model of initial selection in translation that incorporates the wb-WC reaction parameters in the open and closed states of the A-site. In the new model, the exoergic wb-WC reaction is kinetically restricted by the decoding rates, which explains the observations of the WC geometry at equilibrium conditions. Moreover, the model reveals constraints imposed by the exoergic wb-WC reaction on the decoding accuracy: its equilibration counteracts the favorable contribution from equilibration of the open-closed transition. The similarity of the base-pair recognition mechanism in DNA polymerases allows extending this model to replication as well. Our model can be a step towards a general recognition model for flexible substrates.