Mistimed surveys lead to underestimated migratory bird impacts from wind farms

Accurately estimating the likelihood of occurrence of threatened species is essential for effective impact assessments at development sites. Current survey guidelines often rely on coarse, static species distribution maps, risking misalignment for migratory birds present only seasonally. We evaluated 70 wind farms in eastern Australia to assess the alignment between survey timing and seasonal occurrence of four migratory species. Using eBird-based relative abundance models we classified recommended and actual survey periods as optimal, suboptimal, or poorly timed. Half of all surveys were not optimal, and one fifth missed the species potential temporal window of presence altogether. Field detections mostly occurred within modelled optimal or suboptimal windows, validating our approach. Likelihood of occurrence was significantly lower in poorly or suboptimally timed surveys, indicating current guidance for surveying migratory birds at Australian windfarms contains critical shortcomings. Evidence-based alignment with seasonal presence is needed to improve biodiversity assessment guidelines for wind energy development.