Climate change decreases the likelihood of tropical forest community persistence with a strong mediation of plant-plant network structures

Abstract

Climate change is known to negatively impact tropical forests; yet how climate change impacts tree community persistence at local scales remains less clear. Using data from a long-term tropical forest census plot over 25 years, we constructed plant- plant interaction networks based on tree growth. We then quantified community persistence as feasibility domain of constituent species using recently developed frameworks of structural stability. We found a decrease in structural stability under warming and precipitation changes over time as evidenced by both direct environmental effects and indirect effects via network structure; and indirect effects were stronger than direct effects. Among these structures, facilitation:competition degree ratio and competitive transitivity were most positively related with structural stability. Our study highlights how the lens of plant-plant interaction networks can identify novel details about risk to tropical forest diversity under climate change at local scales. Insights from this work will be helpful for aligning forest management activities with areas under the greatest risk of species loss.