Global cropland connectivity: A risk factor for invasion and saturation by emerging pathogens and pests

The geographic pattern of cropland is an important risk factor for invasion and saturation by crop-specific pathogens and arthropods. Understanding cropland networks supports smart pest sampling and mitigation strategies. We evaluate global networks of cropland connectivity for key vegetatively-propagated crops (banana and plantain, cassava, potato, sweetpotato, and yam) important for food security in the tropics. For each crop, potential movement between geographic location pairs was evaluated using a gravity model, with associated uncertainty quantification. The highly-linked hub and bridge locations in cropland connectivity risk maps are likely priorities for surveillance and management, and for tracing intra-region movement of pathogens and pests. Important locations are identified beyond those locations that simply have high crop density. Cropland connectivity risk maps provide a new risk component for integration with other factors - such as climatic suitability, genetic resistance, and trade routes - to inform Pest Risk Assessment and mitigation.